https://harici.com.tr/scholz-almanyayi-rusya-ile-catismadan-uzak-tutacagima-guvenin/
Scholz: Trust that I will keep Germany away from conflict with Russia
Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that after the Social Democrats were approved as the top candidate for the list in the early elections in February, voters should trust him to keep Germany out of a direct conflict with Russia.
Scholz tried to separate himself and his party from leading conservatives in the polls, while strictly sticking to Germany's commitment to support Ukraine, it was also necessary to prevent the conflict from turning into a war between Russia and NATO.
Scholz's candidacy is expected to be confirmed at the SPD leadership meeting to be held on Monday, despite his low personal popularity.
“It is important that we set a clear route that everyone can trust”
“There are many people in Europe who are concerned and afraid of security and peace,” Scholz introduced himself as a 'cunning and cautious protector of the nation' by saying in a speech at an SPD event in Berlin on Friday.
“It is important that we set a clear route that everyone can trust,” the chancellor added, adding that the citizens who "like to vote for democratic parties" are "sure that they know very well which of these parties are common-sense".
Scholz faced increasing pressure to step aside for Defense Minister Boris Pistorius before he retracted from the candidacy.
The 64-year-old Pistorius appears to be Germany's most popular politician in the polls and was more likely to wage a successful campaign against the conservative CDU under the Friedrich Merz.
Pistorius' approval rate tripled the chancellor
Merz's CDU/CSU alliance is generally more hawking in support of Ukraine, criticizing Scholz for refusing to give the Kiev government long-range Taurus cruise missiles.
Scholz justifies this attitude by saying that it risks drawing Germany directly into the war.
In a survey released on Thursday for public broadcaster ARD, Pistorius reached an approval rate of 61%, almost double the second-ranked Merz with 34%.
Greens' chancellor candidate and current deputy chancellor Robert Habeck ranked third with 29%, and Scholz ranked sixth with 20%.
Scholz's promise to loosen the "debt brake"
Germany is going to federal election on February 23, seven months before the planned vote, after Scholz's traffic light coalition with the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) on November 6 disbanded after a long-term dispute over budget policy.
In addition to his message to voters concerned about the conflict with Russia, Scholz also promised that Germany will continue to keep defense spending at 2% of gross domestic product without compromising social welfare spending.
Scholz added that to achieve this, Germany's strict borrowing rules, known as the "debt brake", will need to be relaxed.
CDU is far ahead in the surveys
According to the survey average calculated by Bloomberg, Merz's CDU/CSU alliance will win with more than 32% of the votes.
AfD will be second with about 18%, SPD will be third with approximately 15% and Greens will be fourth with about 12%.
If Merz's bloc wins the election, he will have to form a coalition with at least one other party to obtain a majority of the Bundestag.
The SPD and the Greens are the most likely partners because the FDP is in danger of not being able to pass the 5% threshold required to enter the parliament.
EUROPE
UniCredit bid 10 billion euros for Italian rival Banco BPM
Published
16 minutes ago 25/11/2024AuthorItalian UniCredit presented a 10.1 billion euro acquisition offer for its rival Banco BPM in a deal that would accelerate consolidation in Europe's divided banking sector.
UniCredit said in a statement on Monday that its offer, covering all shares, values 6.66 euros for each Banco BPM stock and will create Europe's third largest credit institution in terms of market value if the deal is accepted.
UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel said in a statement that an agreement for BPM will “expand our geographical reach, expand our customer base among both individual and corporate clients, and further grow our premium business,” adding that it will reinforce the bank's status of being the second-largest bank in Italy.
When UniCredit made a move to take over the German bank Commerzbank in the past months, especially German politics was involved.
Orcel said the proposal for BPM "had no impact" on its investment in Commerzbank. “The situation there is very different,” said the CEO of UniCredit.
Regarding his shares in Commerzbank, Orcel said UniCredit “may want to go further or withdraw from our investment and return capital if the conditions are appropriate”; this decision will take time because he said he thinks “it is important to respect the election process in Germany.”
Consolidation debates among European banks have become momentum in recent months; policymakers in the region want to encourage the emergence of larger local groups and multinational banks that could challenge U.S. giants and their rapidly growing rivals in Asia.
UniCredit's proposal represents a 0.5 percent premium for Friday's price, while Banco represents a 14.6 percent increase from the share price on November 6, when Banco BPM's asset manager, Anima Holding, bid to buy for 1.6 billion euros.
Days later, BPM acquired a 5 percent stake in Monte dei Paschi di Siena and started the local consolidation process by the Italian government disposing of some of its shares in the once-decking credit institution.
UniCredit said BPM “does not currently have the scale sufficient to operate in the context of a major change and development.”
Orcel made a name for itself by consulting on bank mergers and acquisitions, including the Italian Credito Italiano's 21 billion euro merger with UniCredito to create UniCredit.
Orcel also consulted during the Royal Bank of Scotland' acquisition of ABN Amro in 2007. UniCredit established its position in Commerzbank by purchasing some shares from the German government and using derivatives.
EUROPE
Acquisition managers index in the euro region is at the lowest level in the last 10 months
Published
1 hour ago 25/11/2024YazarCommercial activities in the euro region showed a sharp decline in November, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) going to cut interest rates of half a point next month.
According to the estimate released by Hamburg Commercial Bank on Friday, the Eurozone compound acquisition managers index (PMI) unexpectedly fell to 48.1 points, the lowest level in the last 10 months, below the 50-point limit, which separates growth from contracting. Analysts did not expect a change from last month's 50.
“The outlook is gloomy in the medium term, especially because of the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on European growth,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer of ABN AMRO Investment Solutions, a note sent to customers, according to the Financial Times (FT).
The interest rate cut has already started to be priced
Investors reacted by pricing the possibility of a larger interest rate cut at the ECB's meeting on December 12, and the probability of a half-point cut relative to implied levels in swap markets almost doubled to 55 percent.
The weaker-than-expected commercial activity data caused the euro to fall by more than 1 percent to $1,033, the weakest level Europe has seen against the dollar since the energy supply crisis at the end of 2022.
While the decline in the eurozone manufacturing sector accelerated slightly in November, the larger service sector also fell into the negative zone, and the activity in the sector fell to the lowest level in the last 10 months.
“The manufacturing sector of the eurozone is sinking deep into the recession, and now the service sector is starting to struggle after two months of marginal growth,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist of HCOB, which published the index together with S&P Global.
The recession will also be felt in the first quarter of 2025
The PMI survey, which is seen as one of the most reliable early indicators of economic activity for the eurozone, is closely monitored by monetary policy makers. In recent months, the ECB has become increasingly concerned about moderate growth and faster-than-expected declines in inflation.
The eurozone economy expanded by only 0.4 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. In October, the ECB reduced borrowing costs by quarter points for the second consecutive month, reducing interest rates to 3.25 percent.
Until now, the consensus in the market has been that policymakers will continue to cut interest rates by a quarter of a point in the next four meetings.
Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen said in a note to his customers that the poor November data meant a “insertible downturn” for hopes that the Eurozone economy would recover soon, stating that the recession was a possible scenario for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2025.
Exports continue to go upside down in Germany
Germany's economic performance in the third quarter was even worse than the country's statistics office Destatis predicted last month. On Friday, after a decrease of 0.3 percent in the second quarter, real GDP halved its growth forecast to 0.1 percent.
Foreign trade put great pressure on production with exports falling 1.9 percent compared to the previous quarter and imports increasing by 0.2 percent.
In a different statement made by Destatis, it was stated that the decline in exports continued in October with the 6.9 percent decrease in exports to non-EU countries.
Andreas Scheuerle, economist at Frankfurt-based Deka Bank, said "Germany has entered a detouring phase of prolonged recession," adding that cyclical and structural problems hit the EU's largest economy "toxically".
EUROPE
Pistorius threw in the towel in the chancellor's race at the SPD
Published
3 days ago 22/11/2024YazarGerman Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has ended weeks-long speculation that he could replace Chancellor Olaf Scholz by withdrawing from his party's top of the list candidate in the upcoming elections.
In a video message posted by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on Thursday evening, Pistorius said that public debates were harming the party and as a result, he had informed the party administration that it was not suitable for this task.
“Olaf Scholz is a strong chancellor and the right candidate for chancellor,” Pistorius said, adding that the party leader represents 'reason and common sense'.
The German minister said, "Now we have a common responsibility to end this discussion. Because there is a lot in danger," he said.
When Scholz triggered the early elections two weeks ago, he was automatically expected to be the party's candidate as the incumbent chancellor. But after many polls showed that Pistorius, who has been the defense minister since the beginning of last year, showed that he was the country's most popular politician, a de facto race began.
Scholz's popularity is in places
In response to Pistorius, Scholz had one of the worst support rates, and voters blamed him for months of fighting that paralyzed the triple traffic light coalition until it collapsed earlier this month.
But the party's central government stood behind Scholz, and Pistorius was subjected to increasing criticism by some of the names in the SPD for not being able to suppress speculation.
In his video message, the Defense Minister said that the debate, which he stressed he did not start, caused "increasing uncertainty" in the party and "anger" among voters.
The minister insisted that it was his decision to announce that he would not take part in the race and said that the SPD would campaign for a second term for his "extraordinary" chancellor.
Supporters of Pistorius were disappointed
Pistorius' supporters reacted with disappointment to the news of "throwing towels". Joe Weingarten, a member of the SPD Bundestagl, told the Der Spiegel news magazine, “I regret this development. Now the goal should be to work together and as a one-body to achieve the best possible choice for the SPD,” he said.
Another deputy Johannes Arlt said, "I would prefer a different decision, but now we have a decision. This is a good thing for the party and the country. Now we are entering the election campaign of the Federal Assembly in unity," he said.
With the withdrawal of Pistorius, the chanceller'ship race is expected to be between Scholz and Friedrich Merz, the leader of the leading opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) in the polls.
Scholz's supporters insist that he can catch Merz, the millionaire former lawyer and president of BlackRock Germany, who has been running the CDU since 2022.
Minister works for Germany's re-militarization
The 64-year-old Pistorius was noted for his relaxed attitude towards the soldiers, his harsh attitude towards Russia, and his willingness to rearm Germany.
After his appointment as defense minister in 2023, he made it clear that some names in the SPD did not share his shyness about taking a tough stance against Moscow.
Describing Putin as a “despot in the Kremlin,” Pistorius warned the German public opinion that the country should spend more on defense and make itself “ready for war”.